Abstract
About this talk
Most of the time the news are mentioning the existence of Excess Mortality in the last years, in several countries, and in particular in Portugal. Here we analyse the mortality evolution from 2009-2022 and fit a model that explains the main drivers of mortality. Using this model, it’s possible to see that there is no excess mortality in this period. What we have is an increasing mortality due to population ageing, Covid-19 pandemics, and more heat waves. When we exclude these effects, the population shows stability overtime. Eventually, some Long Covid-19 deaths may be arising in 2022, but this fact is not clear.
Audience Take Away Notes:
- Mortality main drivers
- How to model mortality time series
- Checking the existence of not of excess mortality
- Avoid “confounding” information
Speaker
About the speaker
