Title : Mortality in Portugal 2009-2022: Did we have excess mortality
Abstract:
Most of the time the news are mentioning the existence of Excess Mortality in the last years, in several countries, and in particular in Portugal. Here we analyse the mortality evolution from 2009-2022 and fit a model that explains the main drivers of mortality. Using this model, it’s possible to see that there is no excess mortality in this period. What we have is an increasing mortality due to population ageing, Covid-19 pandemics, and more heat waves. When we exclude these effects, the population shows stability overtime. Eventually, some Long Covid-19 deaths may be arising in 2022, but this fact is not clear.
Audience Take Away Notes:
- Mortality main drivers
- How to model mortality time series
- Checking the existence of not of excess mortality
- Avoid “confounding” information
Biography:
Dr. Luis Portugal studied Management and Economics and develop his post-graduate studies in probabilities and statistics, actuarial science, financial mathematics, and applied mathematics to actuarial science. His PhD from University of Liverpool respect liabilities valuations in insurance companies. He was CEO of two insurance companies, president of the Portuguese Institute of Actuaries, Director of the Portuguese Association of Insurers and invited Lecturer during 20 years at the University of Barcelona, the ASAE University in Bucharest and several other Portuguese universities. Currently he is Partner and Managing Director of ACTUARIAL Group, a consulting company specialized in actuarial science that works in 21 countries, with head-office in Portugal and offices at Dubai International Financial Center and Hong Kong. He published a book about Insurance Companies management and actuarial science papers at some scientific journals.
